Here in New Hampshire, and in many other states, Democrats are again pushing for a Family and Medical Leave scheme that they claim is necessary. It passed the Republican controlled state House last year, but died in the Senate, facing a veto from the Republican governor. Now, the Democrats control both houses and are prioritizing to ram it thru. The governor suggests he will veto it because he has not seen proof of it being fiscally sustainable. He has proposed a market-based private system in partnership with Vermont, but the Democrats have ironically called that a tax and unsustainable, and will likely convert it once they win everything again. Their scheme is in no way financially stable and basically creates an income tax of 1.5% for all workers, and will inevitably lead to a true income tax to save it, which then will be upped and upped for more programs. No matter what Republicans try to do, this program is almost inevitable here and elsewhere. Even President Trump has said he was interested in a national leave program. Many states already have one.
Meanwhile, it will not be long before the disastrous Obamacare is used to bring us into single payer. It is coming and there is little we can do to stop it. The Democrats will win both houses of Congress one day and the presidency at some point. They will pass it. While we can explain it will raise taxes, they can rightly point out that it will replace insurance premiums with a tax, which may be more, equal, or less. Then they will lie and mislead about the benefits. Already a strong majority of Americans support the idea in abstract. True, when explained the costs and negative effects, support drops from two-thirds to one-quarter, but that is not how these debates work. Many conservatives even concede that it might just be easier to have single payer, even if they agree it is a bad idea.
Why is all of this inevitable? Because conservatives never repeal anything and always give up. After all the bluster about repealing Obamacare, what did they do? Fail to repeal it because a recently deceased vindictive jerk cast the one no vote that sank repeal. Republicans have a stronger Senate majority now, but the House is controlled by Democrats. That pushes us to 2021. Republicans might add to that, or lose it. The House is up in the air. I personally think Trump will win reelection handily, and the House might be won back. In recent history, presidential reelections have not seen much movement in the House. Republicans need to win at least 18 or 19 seats (one seat is currently in dispute) to take back the House. And even then, they will only have 218-217. That leaves no room for error with repeal. If Trump wins reelection, 2022 is likely to see Republicans lose seats again. 2024 is likely to be a Democrat presidential year. 2026 might finally provide a Republican wave for repeal, but with a Democrat president, that is dead on arrival. So when will Obamacare be repealed?
Democrats, being socialists, play the long game. They know they will win eventually, and it matters not whether it is today, tomorrow, or next week. It is inevitable. This was figured out years ago by socialists to apply in democratic countries where socialism could not be enforced otherwise. Keep at it until they have power, and advance the ball a bit. Medicare and Medicaid have been in place for over half a century and Republicans talk about defending them, not repealing them. Social Security has been in place for over three quarters of a century, and reform is talked about, privatization is considered, but no one has a plan. No one threatens repeal. Republicans apply no pressure and get no compromise. What are Republicans fighting for? Republicans refuse to even suggest repealing these programs, fearing it to be electoral suicide. And it is: they will be destroyed in the next election, but they will come back. People will eventually get fed up with Democrats, and also see that we are better off without socialist programs, especially if repealed carefully and effectively.
Unfortunately, now, we are not even having this debate. In negotiation and compromise, you have to high ball and work down to what you actually want. If Republicans dont talk about existing programs, those are a given, and we move on to the next program. The compromise is just a question of when. Single payer in 2009 or in 2029? If Republicans were to start threatening Medicare itself, Democrats would have to drop Medicare for All and play defense. It will be a brutal fight, but if Republicans have the grit, they can win. If they can demonstrate a good privatization plan, which is not difficult, it will be an easy sell. Market based health care is a big, complicated project, but it can be done and this can be demonstrated. Republicans just have to be tough and have resolve to get it passed. Tough questions, such as pre-existing conditions, need answers. And there are good answers.
Democrats would not know what to do if Republicans, in unison, started bashing every government program. Given that almost any investment will produce better results than Social Security, it would be incredibly easy to privatize. Not to mention, unlike with SS, you would keep everything even if you die (your heirs, at least). All the GOP needs to do is explain how much more money retirees will get with a private account, by several multiples. Why should only the middle and upper class have IRAs and 401ks?
Either one by one, or with an all out assault, Republicans need to press hard to repeal these programs. At that point, the compromise is giving up on new programs at least, and Democrats now have to decide how long they will hold out until repeal, or let more prosperous market systems take root. This will not be easy, and Republicans are consistent cowards, but it could happen. It needs a president to say it. It needs Senators and Congressmen to call for it. It need not be all of them at first, just a small group, but it will grow. The same can be applied in a state as well. In fact, that may be where to test the idea: repeal a program. In our system of government, once something is passed, it becomes difficult to repeal. If Republicans manage to get repeals passed, and show how much better things are, Democrats face daunting odds to turn around and repeal the repeal. They will be back at square one and have to fight everything all over again. Republicans, hopefully, will be moving on to the next repeal, not even giving Democrats a chance. The GOP needs to play its own long game, with the inevitability of repealing almost everything.